In a previous post I wrote that in my opinion there was a 50% chance of a Russian invasion into Eastern Ukraine and that if it were to take place, it would almost certainly happen before the Ukrainian presidential elections scheduled for May 25th.
I also indicated that at the time I did not feel that an invasion would be imminent because the news cycle was not in Putin’s favor. With the capture of administrative buildings in three Eastern Ukrainian cities (Luhansk, Donetsk and Xarkiv) by pro-Russian protesters, the news cycle is now in Putin’s favor.
Watch for the Pro-Russian separatists to try to incite violence so the “Self-Defense Forces” can move in.
Also worth noting, from a friend:
Ukraine’s only hope is the genuine threat of obliterating Russia’s gas pipeline infrastructure. Ukraine should start blowing up gaslines and infrastructure as soon as the invasion begins, the second a Russian soldier crosses the frontier.